Thursday, July 22, 2010

Despite inflation worries, Bernanke signals another rate cut

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July 21 (Bloomberg)

Treasuries rose, pushing two-year yields to the fourth record low in five days, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the economic outlook is “unusually uncertain” and policy makers are prepared “to take further policy actions as needed.”

Ten-year note yields touched a 15-month low as Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee that central bankers are ready to act to aid growth even as they prepare to eventually raise interest rates from almost zero and shrink a record balance sheet.

“An unusual outlook may call for unusual measures, and that means the Fed may take more action as needed, which would lead to lower rates,” said Suvrat Prakash, an interest-rate strategist in New York at BNP Paribas, one of the 18 primary dealers that trade with the central bank.

The benchmark 10-year note yield dropped 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 2.88 percent at 4:42 p.m. in New York. It touched 2.85 percent, the lowest level since April 21. The 3.5 percent security due in May 2020 rose 5/8, or $6.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 105 1/4.

The two-year Treasury note yield fell as much as 2 basis points to touch 0.5520 percent, the lowest ever, before trading at 0.5601 percent. It previously reached record lows July 15, 16 and yesterday. Thirty-year bond yields slid 9 basis points to 3.89 percent.

U.S. stocks tumbled after fluctuating earlier.

No Decisions

The Fed chief, responding to questions, outlined options for further steps, including giving more information on the Fed’s commitment to low interest rates. Tools to boost the economy also include reducing the rate paid on banks’ reserves held at the Fed and using the central bank’s balance sheet, he said. Officials haven’t decided which they might use, he said.

Economic data over the past month that were weaker than analysts projected have prompted investor speculation the Fed may increase monetary stimulus in a bid to keep the economy growing and reduce a jobless rate from close to a 26-year high.

Policy makers have kept the target for overnight loans between banks in a record low range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.

‘Extended Period’

Bernanke today affirmed the central bank’s policy of keeping rates low for an “extended period,” saying it expects moderate growth, a decline in the jobless rate and “subdued inflation” over several years.

Policy makers at their June policy meeting lowered their forecast for growth this year to a range of between 3 percent and 3.5 percent, from 3.2 percent to 3.7 percent in April, minutes released last week showed.

In his eight-page statement to the Senate panel, the Fed chairman devoted almost 10 times as many words to discussing the exit from stimulus as he did to potential actions to boost growth. Exit options include reinvesting proceeds from maturing Treasuries into shorter-term issues, selling housing debt and raising the interest rate paid on the $1 trillion of bank deposits at the Fed, Bernanke said.

Exit-Strategy Focus

“The market was looking for some kind of groundwork of what further accommodation would look like,” said Steve Rodosky, head of Treasury and derivatives trading at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s largest bond fund. “If anything there was more of a focus on an exit strategy.”

A gauge of trader expectations for inflation, the gap between rates on 10-year notes and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, narrowed to 1.71 percentage points from this year’s high of 2.49 percentage points in January. It touched 1.68 percentage points yesterday, the least since October.

The U.S. will auction $39 billion in 2-year notes, $37 billion in 5-year securities and $29 billion in 7-year debt next week, according to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey of primary dealers. The sales will take place on three consecutive days beginning July 27.

The $105 billion total would mark the third straight month the government has reduced its offering of the notes, and would be the lowest since it sold $104 billion of them 13 months ago.

‘Heavy Lifting’ Done

The U.S. budget deficit in June shrank from a year earlier, to $68.4 billion from $94.3 billion, the Treasury reported on July 13. Even so, the deficit this fiscal year is forecast to reach a record $1.6 trillion as the government funds efforts to revive growth and employment.

Matthew Rutherford, the Treasury’s deputy assistant secretary for federal finance, said earlier this year the department was confident the “deficit situation” would improve and that auction sizes had reached their peak. “The heavy lifting is done,” he said at a Feb. 3 press conference.

Two-year interest-rate swap spreads widened today for the first time in eight days after Bernanke damped speculation that policy makers were considering reducing the interest rate paid on reserves. The Fed will need to increase that rate at some point in the future when it begins lowering the support it provides the economy, Bernanke said told lawmakers.

--With assistance from Susanne Walker and Oliver Biggadike in New York. Editors: Greg Storey, Dave Liedtka

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